DoolittleBrothers

In professional sports, too often teams pay players based on past performance rather than anticipated future performance.

This approach can work if teams utilize a properly-interpreted performance record to reasonably project what lies ahead. Too often, however, it seems like teams in all the major sports pay players as if their level productivity was static. Teams, in fact, behave as if they expect players to just keep churning out the same season over and over.

To this end, today’s Stat Guy column addresses the Larry Johnson issue. Now, as I point out in the article, the subject of heavy running back use has already been thoroughly hashed and rehashed over at footballoutsiders.com. But this aspect of the LJ situation, I feel, has been underemphasized in the mainstream media. And, as always, I’m trying to serve as a conduit between those on the cutting edge and our average readers.

As for Johnson, one can appreciate his position as well. Sure, he’s motivated by the respect card (and dollars) but, at the same time, the “Curse of 370″ suggests that he needs to get what he can while he can get it. If the Chiefs don’t realize that Johnson’s value is at its apex, then Johnson himself (and his representation) may well be aware of that fact.

The Johnson holdout really seems like a moment of truth for the direction of the franchise. Carl Peterson’s options are plentiful and a rational person can make an argument for each of them:

1) If Peterson envisions this edition of the Chiefs as a legitimate contender, getting Johnson into camp under the terms of his current contract would be the ideal outcome. If he is to be one of the exceptions to the “Curse of 370”, then they need to see him play this season without the telltale signs of wear and tear _ and they need to limit his workload to more humane quantities. The problem: Pursuing this path might mean a season-long holdout.

2) If the Chiefs view this as a rebuilding year (and there has never been any sign that Peterson believes in the concept of rebuilding) or if Peterson has correctly determined that Johnson is likely to decline, then the only way to maximize Johnson’s value to trade him. But the big question here: What can they get in return? If the Chiefs can’t get fair value, then option No. 1 is looking better.

3) Peterson can give Johnson a new deal, probably for somewhat less than what Johnson is demanding, but still for top dollar. But then he’s really rolling the dice. Johnson may turn out to be the exception to historical precedent. But, then again, the “Curse of 370″ may hover over Arrowhead Stadium for a long time to come.

None of these options sounds particularly great but, hey, this is fun. Training camp usually doesn’t generate such compelling drama.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 7th, 2007 at 9:02 am and is filed under NFL. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.