Royals rotation: dream scenarios
By Bradford Doolittle. Filed in Blogroll, Royals |
You can pretty much go through every team before spring training starts and pick five guys out of the organization that, if everything comes together, could make for one heck of a starting rotation. Then almost right from the get-go, almost all of those scenarios crumble.
First, you usually have one or two standouts leftover from the previous season; then you have one or two underachievers back — due for a bounce-back season. Then you have a new guy, perhaps a rehabber, or a hot-shot on the Baseball America prospect list ready to break out.
In reality, the standouts regress, the underachievers turn out to simply not be that good and the new guy’s arm is shot or, if a prospect, isn’t ready. That’s without even considering yet-to-occur injuries. Projecting pitching is a bitch.
For the Royals, I sort of see my 2008 dream rotation shaping up thusly:
1. Gil Meche — a repeat of 2007
2. Brian Bannister — the same, only for a full campaign
3. Zack Greinke — rides hot finish to elite status as an AL starter
4. Luke Hochevar — pitches like you’d think a No. 1 pick would pitch
5. Bartolo Colon — a rehab story made good
Wow, on this wet morning in mid-January, with Kauffman Stadium currently in shambles because of the renovation and the team operating out of temporary offices on the Country Club Plaza, that feels like a heck of a rotation. Wait, let me sit back a moment and dream of the possibilities …
Yep, playoffs, here we come.
Of course there are potential problems with this rotation:
1. Meche overachieved
2. Bannister really, really overachieved
3. Greinke has only started 14 games over the last two seasons
4. Hochevar was not that good in the minor leagues last season and is probably a long shot to win a rotation spot out of spring training
5. Bartolo Colon is still a free agent — he doesn’t play for the Royals
6. I’d still like to see Joakim Soria in the rotation but I don’t think it’s going to happen in 2008
Yesterday, as mentioned, I went down to the Tiger Club meeting to listen to Dayton Moore speak. Great setting — small venue, about 25-30 overfed white Mizzou fans on their lunch hour, grumbling about recruiting and whatnot. Only disappointment was that in the restaurant with the best burgers in town, the bill of fare included veal cutlet, salad, pasta, meatballs and pasta sauce. Ugh.
The emcee of the gathering, Bill Blanck, recognized me from my Week Ahead mug shot and said hello. He also said he’d introduce me to the crowd, which struck me as a little silly and certainly embarrassing. But whatever. Sometimes it still dumbfounds me when I realize there are actually people out there who read what I write. Most of the time, I feel so utterly isolated that…well, that’s another topic.
As it turns out, Bill forgot to introduce me beforehand. The upshot of this is that it didn’t alert Dayton to my presence. I think some of the comments he made wouldn’t have come out if he knew a working member of the media was present. Of course, under those circumstances, I can’t repeat those comments. Sorry for the tease. There was even one newsy bit of info he shared but, alas, we haven’t even had it in The Star yet. Scooping my employer on my personal blog would be my quickest route to a freelance writing career but I’m not so sure that’s the best course of action. The powers that be take that stuff very seriously. Besides, I’m told that another Star writer will be addressing the topic very soon.
Anyway, back to the rotation. Dayton did make some comments I want to address here because they suggest something that might explain an statistical oddity I noticed a while back.
In the minors, Hochevar posted a disappointing 0.97 groundball-to-flyball ratio. Once he got to Kansas City however, that jumped up to 2.27. What was going on there? Well, he only threw 12 2/3 innings for the Royals in the Show so chalk up another one to sample-size shenanigans.
But then Moore talked about how the organization had pretty much barred Hochevar from throwing his best pitch — a sinking, two-seam fastball — while in the minors. The thinking goes that for young pitchers, the changeup is the last pitch to develop and they wanted Hochevar to concentrate on that. However, when he was recalled to KC, the Royals let Hochevar throw the two-seamer once again.
Perhaps I’m reading too much into to it, but when you find some sort of data blip AND you find a good reason for its existence, then just perhaps the sudden shift is somewhat sustainable. I don’t know that Hochevar can maintain a 2.27 GB:FB but you can be sure that will be the first column I check after every start he makes. Moore compared his stuff and style to Brandon Webb.
If Hochevar doesn’t make the rotation in the spring, I’m still in favor of using him in short relief at the big-league level to aid in his transition. Perhaps if Greinke continues to do well, the Royals will see the wisdom in such an approach as you could point to his time in the bullpen last season as helping him turn the corner.
After the luncheon, Bill Blanck introduced me to the crowd and I did the obligatory smile and waving thing. Then as the meeting broke up, I went over to Dayton to say hello. He chastised me for not getting to the ballpark more often. He’s right. I don’t get out there even remotely as often as I desire. But when you are chained to a desk in an office for five evenings a week, leaving the other two evenings as your only chance to spend time with your wife, it’s not really a schedule conducive to spending time at the old ballyard. Nevertheless, I’m going to make a more concentrated effort at getting out there this season, even if it’s just for the pregame media access. Besides, looking back at last season, I realize that the main reason I didn’t go out there more often was because I was pouting over the fact that I couldn’t go out there whenever I wanted. Pouting is never productive.
