Royals: Lots of talk, little action
By Bradford Doolittle. Filed in Royals |
I’ve got a nagging feeling this morning that the Royals are having a bad offseason. However, I’m not sure that feeling is entirely justified.
The Royals obviously had a number of holes to fill entering the hot stove campaign: two outfielders, middle relief, two starting pitchers. An upgrade at first base would be fine, as well. (Oh yeah, they needed a manager, as well. The consensus is that they got a good one. Yippeee.)
Moves to date
* signed Japanese pitcher Yasuhiko Yabuta, a 34-year-old sinkerballer with a career ERA of 4.03. I have no idea how to accurately project Yabuta’s performance. Well, here’s one way:
Hideki Okajima Year Team Age H9 HR9 BB9 K9 eERA 04-06 Japan 28-30 7.86 1.17 3.11 10.09 3.70 2007 Boston 31 6.52 0.78 2.22 8.22 3.25 Yasuhiko Yabuta Year Team Age H9 HR9 BB9 K9 eERA 04-06 Japan 31-33 7.06 0.67 3.51 8.31 3.51 2007-1 K.C. 34 5.86 0.45 2.50 6.77 3.19 2007-2 K.C. 34 7.56 0.72 3.75 7.77 3.78
—
The eERA listed here is a stab at a defense-independent ERA so the H9 listed doesn’t go into that calculation. Good thing, because I can’t see Yabuta’s H9 actually being better in the U.S. What I’ve done here is applied Okajima’s categorial adjustments to Yabuta — an iffy proposition being that the Major Leagues are tougher. Then I’ve applied a standard adjustment that is a little less severe than a AAA equivalent. So you get an general idea of what range Yabuta’s numbers could fall into. Of course, they could actually be a lot worse.
What makes you nervous is the strike out rate. I realize that strikeouts aren’t necessarily the metier of the sinkerballer, but when it comes to projecting stats from a minor league to the majors, the higher the strikeout rate, the better you feel about the translation.
In any event, Yabuta may be that eighth inning guy the Royals project. But it’s far from a sure thing. (And we’re assuming that Joakim Soria can be as effective as the closer as he was last year — no sure bet. Should have put him in the rotation, I still maintain) Based on what we know about projecting bullpens (which is that reliever peformance is flaky), the Royals need to bring in one or two low-cost alternatives and then sort out the options within the organization.
* signed Jose Guillen to a 3-year, $36 million contract
In a vacuum, it’s pretty easy to see that Guillen is an upgrade over what the Royals had in the outfield last season. It’s the money that’s troubling. A three-year deal isn’t tragic because that still leaves a cushion to extend Alex Gordon and Billy Butler down the line. But the money is something the Royals can’t get back. Guillen probably isn’t a $12 million player this season, he’s be less of one the year after that and, the third year, ouch.
Here are Guillen’s numbers for the last five year, expressed as a percentage of plate appearances and translated to Kauffman Stadium:
Year Ag PA 1B 2B 3B HR BB SO RC600 2003 27 534 18.2% 5.6% 0.4% 6.2% 4.9% 17.8% 120 2004 28 620 18.4% 4.8% 0.5% 4.5% 6.3% 14.8% 100 2005 29 611 17.8% 5.7% 0.3% 4.4% 5.6% 16.7% 99 2006 30 268 10.8% 6.0% 0.4% 3.7% 6.0% 17.9% 65 2007 31 658 19.6% 4.6% 0.3% 3.8% 6.7% 17.9% 95
—
The decline is power is very real. Whether it’s age or some illicit substance, he’s clearly at a different plateau when it comes to hitting for extra bases. The plate discipline numbers are holding steady, such as they are, but aren’t good. The dip in doubles and spike in singles is what troubles me. That could be a fluke. Or it could indicate that the Royals have just signed a $12 million, singles-hitting corner outfielder.
I’d guess that Guillen is likely to produce around 90 runs per 600 plate appearances this season. That’s less than a five-run improvement over what Emil Brown gave them in 2005 and 2006. And that number is only going to go down. This dire picture doesn’t even include the possibility that Mark Teahen will be shifted to first base, where his already faltering value would be almost entirely negated. He’d be Doug Mientkiewicz without the Gold Glove.
Where we stand
That’s it — that’s the sum total of Dayton Moore’s efforts this fall. There’s still over two months until spring training, so the offseason could still pick up. The Royals have been rumored to be making a run at every free agent on the market. But their options are dwindling, especially after Andruw Jones reached an agreement with the Dodgers. I fear that what Moore may be battling at this point is Kansas City itself — even with more dollars on the table, the top free agents don’t want to come here. They’ll have to win first and so you end up in a chicken-and-egg sort of quagmire.
The latest name to crop up is Aaron Rowand. Nice player. Not worth five years and $50 million, though. When you look at the up and down nature of his career, factor in that he’s hitting the age of 30, take him out of Citizen’s Bank Ballpark, what you’re left with is only a nominal upgrade over David DeJesus. Kosuke Fukudome is an intriguing prospect but the price on him is escalating and it sounds like the Cubs feel pretty good about getting him to the Windy City.
Another outfield prospect on the market is Pittsburgh’s Jason Bay. But that would require a trade and the Royals are flat out short of trade bait. That’s why is was so disheartening to see Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes and Carlos Quentin (not to mention Miguel Cabrera) change teams in the last week without the Royals being in the conversation. Plus, most of the players landed in the AL Central.
Sigh. All of this patter probably should be irrelevant anyway. I’m not so sure the Royals should be making a run at contention — not for next season, not in this division. I think I’d really rather see them focus on low cost, higher risk types to keep the payroll down. You can always spend money — unless you’ve already spent it.
Perhaps Dayton Moore has a few tricks up his sleeve. I hope so, because this hasn’t been a good week for the franchise. At least they’re bringing back the powder blues.
Sunday, December 16th 2007 at 10:55 am |
With Kuroda off the market, there is chatter that the Royals are now interested in Carlos Silva. Let’s pray this isn’t true. If KC signs Silva, not only would it add a well-below average starting pitcher to the mix but, if Moore signed him at the $40-million for 4 years asking price, it would cast a serious shadow about the direction of the team. Moore was quoted as saying that if KC missed out on Kuroda, then perhaps the best course of action would be to maintain financial flexibility going forward. THAT makes sense. Meanwhile, cast a wish towards Mark Prior, Matt Clement or both.