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DooBros NFL preview: Brad here. It is my intention to post these kinds of previews for MLB, NBA and NFL seasons as they approach as part of my own edification. Writing these synopsis just helps me feel informed. Now, I’m no NFL expert and whereas I do extensive quantitative research on baseball and basketball, my approach to the gridiron is much more mainstream. Plus I don’t like football as much as the other sports. But I read preseason annuals — the best of which, I feel, is Pro Football Prospectus, and feel like I have a certain knack for interpreting data. All that said, these are my impressions of the upcoming NFL season. Today we begin with the NFC East. (I hope to post a new division every other day.) Also, this season, Brian and I will be posting week-by-week predictions. We’ll come up with some sort of suitable bet to keep things interesting. (And don’t miss Brian’s excellent Broncos preview at Deadspin.)

1. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

ANALYSIS: If there is one thing to take from the Eagles’ chapter in Pro Football Prospectus, it’s this: The Eagles were better than their record last season. And the record (10-6, reached second round in the playoffs) was pretty darned good.

The season seemed lost when QB Donovan McNabb went down but with Jeff Garcia under center, Philly caught fire during the season’s second half and took the NFC East title. Garcia proved a capable replacement but make no mistake, he’s no McNabb and was allowed to leave during the offseason. But it wasn’t Garcia that saved the Eagles’ season anyway. When Andy Reid relinquished play-calling duties to Marty Mornhinweg, the Eagles found a run-pass balance in their offense that had been missing for years. Brian Westbrook became a bigger weapon than ever but still was limited to 240 carries. He should be good to go this season. Mornhigweg is back calling plays, McNabb is back under center, the Eagles offensive line, led by LT Jon Runyan and RG Shawn Andrews, is terrific. There are no stars in the receiving corps but there is a depth of quality performers. This may be the Eagles’ best offensive group under Reid.

Defensively, the Eagles are also loaded. Jevon Kearse returns from injury but there is so much depth on the d-line that he won’t be overburdened. LB Takio Spikes was added from Buffalo via trade and is an upgrade over Dhani Jones and the Eagles took steps to shore up their run defense up the middle, a weak spot last year. Don’t be surprised if Omar Gaither unseats aging Jeremiah Trotter at middle linebacker at some point this season. Gaither, at least, should provide quality depth for an aged linebacking trio.

The Eagles are flying sort of under the radar during the preseason but if there are 7-8 teams in the NFL that can win the Super Bowl this season (I have no idea how many there actually are), the Eagles are one of them.

PREDICTION: 12-4

2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS

ANALYSIS: When you look at the Redskins’ depth chart, they seem to have better talent than 8-8. But the holes are significant: quarterback and wide receiver. Can QB Jason Campbell take a big step forward? I don’t know, but the numbers last season weren’t too promising. The alternatives aren’t exciting: Mark Brunell broke into the NFL at roughly the same time as Y.A. Tittle and Todd Collins will be buried with a clipboard in his hand. The early reports from Skins’ camp have been glowing about Campbell but these kinds of stories are rampant this time of the year. I’m not saying that Campbell can’t be an impact player. I’m saying he’s a big question mark. If he’s as good as the preseason hype, though, Washington could step forward considerably on offense if RB Clinton Portis is healthy (so far in camp, he hasn’t been) and willing to share the load with last year’s breakout performer, Ladell Betts.

At receiver, Washington needed to upgrade in the offseason but stood pat, perhaps because of the amount of work that needed to be done to their league-worst defense. Brandon Lloyd is still atop the depth chart and he’s, at best, a ham-and-egger but tight end Chris Cooley is one of the best. The health of left tackle Chris Samuels, who is nursing a knee sprain, is imperative. Overall, the line is average in the running game but excellent in protecting the quarterback. But if Samuels is out for long, it’s trouble. Washington already must replace solid left guard Derrick Dockery, who signed with Buffalo, and the depth is poor.

Finally, offensively speaking, don’t discount the effect of the Redskins having had a full year to digest the prodigious playbook of o-coordinator Al Saunders. With health and improvement by Campbell, this crew should put up some points.

The Redskins’ defense was ravaged by injuries and dropped from fourth in the NFL in DVOA in both 2004 and 2005 to dead last in 2006. Obviously, without a bounce back on that side of the ball, Washington isn’t going anywhere this season. Football Outsiders outlined several areas which suggest a regression to the mean for the Skins, particularly in the passing game and in third down performance. But, nevertheless, when something doesn’t work, you make changes and it remains to be seen if Washington made enough changes on defense to generate a significant improvement.

How badly do the Redskins need a playmaker on defense? Last season, they set an NFL record by forcing just 12 turnovers all season.

The big defensive addition is middle linebacker London Fletcher, who enters his 10th season in the NFL. Fletcher had a big season for Buffalo last season and should be an upgrade. But the real hope for improvement in stopping the opposition lies with better luck with injuries. CB Shawn Springs has struggled to stay healthy for two years now and he must stay fit for the Redskins to improve. He’s the impact performer — the player opposing coaches must gameplan for that allows everyone else to fall into familiar roles. But as huge as Springs’ absence was, just as important was the anemic pass rushing of Washington’s front seven — a shortcoming that wasn’t adequately addressed in the offseason. Even so, the d-line will be better with improved health.

If Springs is 100%, the Washington D will get better. The Skins have the potential to have a great secondary — a word I don’t toss around lightly. If Springs is healthy, Carlos Rogers can going back to be a top-notch No. 2 corner. Plus everyone is raving about rookie safety LaRon Landry, who will team with Sean Taylor to form what may be the league’s best safety tandem. Plus free-agent veteran signings Fred Smoot and David Macklin make the secondary Washington’s area of greatest depth. Skins fans just have to hope that improvement in the secondary isn’t undone by the lack of a consistent pass rush.

My general feeling about the Redskins is that with better luck with injuries, there is enough talent here to do better than break even. But the amount of improvement required by the defense and the number of injury question marks makes it hard to project better than 8-8. And if the injuries pile up once again, the potential is to do a lot worse, perhaps sending Joe Gibbs into an unhappy second retirement.

PREDICTION: 8-8

3. DALLAS COWBOYS

ANALYSIS: The Cowboys featured the fifth-ranked offense in the NFL in terms of yardage last season. But the advanced metrics in *Pro Football Prospectus* had them a little bit lower than that. I think the offense will take a step back. First off, the shiny, new quarterback sheen will rub off of Tony Romo. His late-season troubles, after a terrific run at the start, may have just been a period of adjustment. Then again, there may be a good reason Romo was a backup for so long. The correct answer may be the key to Dallas’ season. I tend to think that Romo will struggle now that opposing d-coordinators have a nice body of film on him. His best trait may be simply that he’s not Drew Bledsoe.

The other problem with the Cowboys’ attack is that new o-coordinator Jason Garrett is very green. He’s never handled play-calling duties and the fact that he was handed the keys to the offense before Wade Phillips was hired as coach promises to be an awkward situation. That’s typical Jerry Jones and it’s akin to telling Phillips, “Welcome aboard. Stay away from the offense.” What happens if Garrett isn’t ready to handle his new duties? One problem Garrett hopes to avoid is a scenario where aging recievers Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn succumb to injuries and/or declining speed. Owens has already struggled with his health early in camp.

On the bright side, the Cowboys shored up their offensive line by signing Leonard Davis from Arizona and moved him to guard where he is much more effective. If Garrett recognizes that the usage of backs Julian Jones and Marion Barber should be flip-flopped, then Dallas can have one of the better rushing attacks in the league.

If the Cowboys are to make a run for the NFC East title, it’s their defense that is going to be the reason. The unit has been middle of the pack the last couple of seasons but brought back 10 starters and upgraded in the secondary by signing Seattle’s Ken Hamlin to play free safety. The real upgrade should be the change in philosophies that comes with Phillips. His zone-blitzing schemes should make a (bigger) star out of OLB DeMarcus Ware. Plus Phillips will expect DEs Marcus Spears and Chris Canty to pressure opposing QBs — a task much better suited to their abilities. This should be a top 10 defense this season.

The Cowboys are a popular pick to win the NFC East. But I think the offense will struggle and the Pokes will finish out of the playoff chase.

PREDICTION: 7-9

4. NEW YORK GIANTS

ANALYSIS: It seems incredible to me that Tom Coughlin is still coaching the New York Giants. He probably won’t be for much longer. Coughlin enters 2007 as a lame duck, with a one-year deal. If the tea leaves are correct, I would lay odds that Coughlin will become the NFL’s first in-season coaching casualty.

The one thing that could save Coughlin would be a breakout season from QB Eli Manning, who is entering his fourth season. But there is no reason to think that Manning will breakout and he will likely have less help than ever. First and foremost, obviously, is the retirement of RB Tiki Barber. Barber was an elite, impact player, the kind of whom just aren’t easily replaced. His replacement will be Brandon Jacobs, who posted very nice numbers (both traditional and advanced) in a backup role last season. He’s a big, physical player in stark contrast to the explosive Barber. The Giants have a very good run-blocking offensive line and so New York should have an above-average ground game. But they will invariably miss the game-changing aspect that Barber provided to the offense. It is that trait that Manning must develop as a passer if New York is going to do anything offensively in 2007. To backup Jacobs, the Giants signed journeyman back Reuben Droughns. A strange decision being that Droughns is really just a poor man’s Brandon Jacobs.

The signs are dark for the passing game. First is the maddening inconsistency of Manning and until he plays 7-8 solid games in a row, he’s just not going to shake that label. The receivers once again will be led by the talented but erratic Plaxico Burress. The other wideout, Amani Toomer, is getting old, as is solid but battered tight end Jeremy Shockey. After struggling to protect Manning during his first two campaigns, the line was much better in 2006. But standout left tackle Luke Petitgout was a salary cap casualty — he’s in Tampa this season. That’s trouble. The Giants survived Petitgout’s midseason leg injury last year because of the play of veteran Bob Whitfield. But Whitfield retired. New offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride has a solid track record and has been the Giants’ quarterbacks coach the last couple of years.

The Giants’ defense looked to be no better than average even before the unexpected absence of DE Michael Strahan from training camp. Their best hope for an impact playmaker may be rookie CB Aaron Ross — who is far from guaranteed to be a starter. Question: If Strahan doesn’t return, does New York scuttle their plans to shift pass-rushing DE Mathias Kiwanuka to OLB? If DE Osi Umenyiora, injured last season, doesn’t return to his previous level of productivity, the Giants’ defense is really in trouble.

PREDICTION: 6-10

This entry was posted on Saturday, August 11th, 2007 at 4:07 pm and is filed under NFL. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.